May 31, 2008

When McArdle's Away . . .

the mice will blog about whatever they darn well feel like:

I'm quite curious about how today's Latino immigrants will feel about immigration once they've been around as long as the Irish. Though perhaps we'll all be thinking whatever our robot overlords tell us by then.

Bonus: actual video of Megan, before her triumphant return; the guest-blogger of the day is Conor Friedersdorf.

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August 29, 2007

Well, Yeah—a Path to Another State is a Start.

And I think this will create positive ripple effects. But I'd still like to see a path to citizenship, for those who merely came here to work their butts off. Call me sentimental.

Or: call me the kind of pragmatist for whom a two-pronged attack seems wiser than a frontal assault. (Isn't there an old saying about "good generalship"? Place that quote for me, please . . . AtH? Mr. Manitoba?)

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May 31, 2007

A Fight I'd Like to See:

The National Review guys against the WSJ. On immigration, no less. Be still, my beating heart.

I must admit: the more I find out about the bill currently on the table, the less I like it. Would someone leak the damned text online?—all 1000 pages of it? Come to think of it, that should be done with all bills these days. Otherwise, you know: we might conclude that our legislators have something to hide.

I'd hate to see things go that way.

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May 23, 2007

"All We Are Saaaayiiinngg

. . . is give wetbacks a chance."

Or, at least Hugh at Big Lizards is suggesting that we give the immigration bill a chance: no contempt prior to investigation, right? And more hard data on its actual provisions is here.

So that makes, what?—eight of us slightly right-of-center bloggers whose heads are not about to explode over the immigration bill? There's the Anchoress, Beth, Sean, Hugh, Captain Ed, Jonah Goldberg (to some degree), Desert Cat, and me.

Hey—I think most illegals do end up assimilating. So I guess that makes me part of the "Coalition of the Instillin' [of American Values]."

Still: there ain't many of us. Maybe we need a cute icon, like a mortar & pestle with some delicious salsa or guacamole in it. Or perhaps a margarita glass!

Or a slice of beautiful Mexican papaya—those things are about the size of my truck. Yum.

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May 22, 2007

The Anchoress

. . . on, of course, the Immigration Bill:

John Podhoretz says there things to like and hate about the bill and heÂ’s distrustful of it, astonished by all the screaming, but doesnÂ’t mind if the screaming brings a better bill. I donÂ’t eitherÂ…but honestly, I worry that the screaming and foot-stomping, if successful, will become a permanent tactic of the hard-right, and then weÂ’ll have both parties constantly doing this acting-out-and-threatening stuff.

There does seem to be a sort of contest going on as to which group—the hard left, or the hard right—can be more immature. It's a sort of race to the bottom.

"Oh, my God! It's 1986 all over again! But this time, it's the end of the world!"

Well, no. And—no.

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May 21, 2007

Captain Ed

. . . on why the current immigration bill represents progress, even if it doesn't offer perfection:

"It rewards illegal behavior; the penalty for illegal entry should be deportation."

There are 12 million illegals in the US. Let me explain how difficult that would be. In the first place, the ICE has to find them, usually where they work. They then have to build a probable cause for a raid and search warrants (unless we want to toss out the 4th Amendment). That takes quite a bit of time; it might take months to build that kind of a case against an employer, but at least it will take a few weeks. Then they raid the shop, arrest everyone without proper identification, and start the deportation process—which requires a hearing for each person in court to determine their status. During that period, we have to house and feed them.

Now, let's say we can summon up the vast resources it would take to send 10,000 people a month through that long, laborious process. (In comparison, we have 16,000 murders a year, and it sometimes takes years to resolve the cases.) It would still take 100 years to deport all 12 million illegals in that manner—while clogging our courts, eating up our law-enforcement resources, and disrupting American commerce and politics for a century, all while we're fighting a war with radical Islamist terrorists.

Emphasis added; read the whole thing.


H/t: The Anchoress, of course. She's one of the maybe half-dozen bloggers considered "right-of-center" who still want to give this bill the benefit of a doubt, and keep moving forward. We are very much in the minority right now. (The comments to her post are recommended, btw: there is the usual "we are legal and we went through hell to get here, and we want everyone else to go through hell, too" non-argument, along with some interesting flashbacks to the Dubai Port deal flap, which was hardly the rightosphere's—or talk radio's—finest hour.)

Bottom line: I'm seeing a lot more emotion on the right regarding this issue lately than I am solid reasoning. And it worries me. Very, very much.

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Conservatives Are Still Pissed.

John Hawkins is threatening a "scorched earth" policy, involving "Google bombs" (something every legislator dreads, I'm sure).

I had dinner with Justene (of The Bear Flag League) last night, along with our husbands and a few other people—including She Who Will Not Practice Law. Justene and I agreed that although we hadn't studied the immigration bill thoroughly enough to have an informed opinion yet, it was very promising that both the left and the right were pissed about it.

I'll post more on it once I've had a chance to actually review the sucker. Though, as with all bills, there may be just a bit too much of it. Thanks to N.Z. Bear, whose dishy picture adorns the inside of many a Cotillion girl's locker door.

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May 19, 2007

Check Out the Anchoress!

She's got it goin' on.

She also agrees with me that we might want so start somewhere realistic in dealing with the immigration issue . . . which, you know—that's an idea some should definitely ponder.

Unless they prefer to sit around wringing their hands, and getting angrier by the day.

(News of the Anchoress' redesign reached me via My Vast Right-Wing Conspiracy.)

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May 18, 2007

Ace on Immigration Reform

Strong feelings, here: he's encouraging people to leave the GOP over this issue. Of course, if that happened, there'd be no one left but us little old libertarians, and we could, like stretch out a bit.

But, here, a ray of light:

Again, I'm not really bothered by the amnesty part. I mean, that's a given. What else are we going to do, realistically?

But I refuse to grant amnesty unless I get my part of the quid pro quo first. Amnesty is acceptable only if it's the last amnesty, and the government needs to secure the border, finally, to prove that.

12-30 million new American citizens I can accept. The problem is the 40-60 million to almost immediately follow. Amnesty, if necessary, but as a one-time deal, and I'm going to need some serious evidence to show it's a one-time deal rather than an ongoing cycle of runaway illegal immigration followed by periodic amnesties.

No one gets their side of the quid pro quo first, Ace: it's like a drug deal. The money and the stuff have to show up simultaneously, or the transaction doesn't take place.

No one trusts anyone in politics. Nor should they.

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May 17, 2007

Immigration Compromise Reached in the Senate

And it looks like the approach is somewhat holistic, which is all I asked. (Well—it's one of the things I asked.) Details so far are sketchy. For instance, when we ask people with high-level skill sets to return to their countries of origin in order to become citizens here, how long do they have to stay there? And who covers their jobs or runs their businesses while they are gone?

This would explain why John McCain wasn't available for his periodic blogger conference call this morning, of course.

The fact is, we had to do something about this, and preferably in a way that didn't create perverse incentives for more people to come here simply because some magical "window of opportunity" might close soon. Not because the system wasn't working previously: in a sense, it's been working all along, in its own messy way. But the "don't ask, don't tell" approach has been expensive in some respects, and—more importantly—it's just too risky for us to have porous borders in this day and age.

The "back door" into this country must close, and part of the solution is to make it easier for people to get here legally. We must cut down on that red tape, or the whole thing falls apart.

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November 27, 2006

I Know It's Wrong of Me . . .

but I love Dennis when he's cranky, which is of course most of the time.

Except for the obsession with you-know-what after it launched: that got boring in a hurry.

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April 11, 2006

Darleen Gives Me a Run for My Money

I've been meaning to link this entry since the collapse of the Roman Empire.

And if I'm ever home in a state other than one of total exhaustion, I'll have a response for her.

But she most certainly makes good points. Why, exactly, did I think I could tangle with her?

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April 05, 2006

Immigration Reprise

Glenn publishes a handful of mail from people who are upset about our lopsided immigration "policy." But please note that a big part of the problem is how punishing the system is for those who want to immigrate "the right way." Fixing this is essential to the problem, which means we have to reform a bureaucracy.

And that's hard to do, but it's essential.

Right now, our attitude toward immigrants—whom we need, by the way, given our system of entitlements and falling birth rates—is, "welcome to the United States. Fuck you."

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April 04, 2006

More on Immigration

Steve Verdon has an interesting post in Outside the Beltway that reflects a lot of my concerns on the question of "illegals." Please note that I do not regard all those who advocate sealing the borders as racists, but I have yet to hear a conversation about this on the radio that doesn't accommodate at least a few racists. Very often, callers on talk radio will say the most disgusting things about Mexican-Americans without being checked whatsoever by the host. After all, we're "all on one side in this thing." Which presumably means we should tolerate the racists. It makes me queasy, to tell you the truth.

Verdon's focus, however, is on the cost-benefit aspect of illegal immigration, regarding which Darleen and I have been playing verbal volleyball for some time. (You'll want to note here that Darleen's non-racist credentials are impeccable, though I wonder if her saturation exposure to the Latin underclass occasionally informs some of her views.)

I continue to believe that in order to address the problem, we must 1) secure the border; 2) streamline the legal immigration system for those who truly want to come here and assimilate; and 3) offer some sort of guest-worker program for young people who simply want to be here temporarily to make a few dollars, and then go home.

Typically [this morning's radio] discussion was about little Juanito and how much money it costs to educate this illegal child in the U.S. school system. Nothing was said about the work that JaunitoÂ’s parents do and the value such works adds to the economy. Nothing was discussed about the taxes paid. The true measure of the costs here should be the net costs, not the total costs.

So how much are the net costs of illegal immigration? This report from the GAO from 1995 (pdf) put the net costs at anywhere from $2 billion a year to $19 billion a year with an illegal population of 3 to 5 million. So even if we take the worse case scenario of 3 million immigrants and $19 billion in net costs and scale it up to todayÂ’s estimated population (say 12 million) we are talking about $80 billion in net costs. A middle of the road estimate would be around $50 billion. Either way I see this as chump-change for the most part.

First we have to remember that the U.S. economy is well over $12 trillion dollars in terms of GDP. Or in other words illegal immigration is equal to about 0.64% of GDP. By contrast the U.S. budget deficit is ten times larger as a percentage of GDP. Spending for the Medicare Prescirption Drug plan is going to cost $18.2 trillion.1 And Medicare, aside from the prescription drug program, has a shortfall in the range of $50 to $60 trillion over the next 75 years. But here we are worried about chump-change due to illegal immigration.

This leads me to, “Why?” The only thing I can think of is that things like Medicare shortfalls are boring and dull. After all it requires reading actuarial reports, figuring out what the taxable wage base is, and looking at projections which brings in things like statistics and already 48.3% of the audience is on the verge of a coma.

Nice, Steve. Some of us were paying attention, there.

Illegal immigration on the other hand seems to touch off some sort of fear of people who are different. They don’t look like “us”, the don’t talk like “us” and they eat all that weird food and dammit I can’t read the signs over the stores that cater to their consumption! So illegal immigration gets lots of attention, but the complete shambles that things like Medicare are in are just ignored. If we could just stem the flow of illegals why economic nirvana would result. Americans would go back to hanging drywall, mowing their own yards, and chopping up chickens. I’m even sure that controlling the U.S.-Mexico border would reverse the global downward trend in manufacturing employment.[/sarcasm]

In short, I see all this handwringing about the U.S. becoming part of Mexico as nothing more than misplaced priorities by people who seem deathly afraid of people who are different than them. The response to the charge of racism is often, “It isn’t racism! We just oppose illegal immigration. And the costs are real.” Sure the costs are real, but they are much smaller when compared to other issues such as Medicare funding. And sure illegal immigration isn’t a good thing, but instead suggest a guest worker program (i.e. make those illegal immigrants legal) and you still get the howling. So both objections, IMO, while technically true are just rhetoric to deflect criticism and hide the rather disquieting aspects of the illegal immigration movement.

Okay. So he's just as turned off by the Latino = bad thing as I am, and it looms large in his argument.

But the cost-benefit thing is relevant, and the huge resistance to guest-worker programs does set off a lot of red flags in terms of some of us feeling that there's a huge xenophobia out there, and/or a huge willingness to ascribe the recession we just went through (over the past five years) to a phenomenon that's been going on in one form or another for decades.

Tag, boys and girls. You're it.

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March 28, 2006

Immigration. Again.

Dafydd has a short summary on the problem of illegal immigration.

The main problem WRT illegal immigration is that no one will budge an inch on either side: the free-market types won't concede that border control is a good idea in this day and age, and the border-control types won't admit that we depend on large numbers of immigrants to run most of the border states.

The problem can only be solved if the border is controlled, but legal immigration would have to be liberalized tremendously, and the extreme bureaucratic nature of applying for residency/citizenship would need to be likewise streamlined, so that legal immigration would become a realistic option for poor people in foreign countries.

In a world wherein it seems like a better bet to pay off a coyote and risk your life, versus entering this country through the front door, something is seriously wrong with our system.

And, no: I don't really want to pay $10 for a bag of lettuce. I really don't. We're writers in this house: our incomes are really unreliable.

And I'm not good at construction, so forcing the local contractors to hire citizens helps me not at all. Except that it decreases the likelihood that we'll ever be able to remodel—even if we're flush again—and strict controls on employers would mean that a lot of people in my neighborhood wouldn't be able to afford their gardeners any more, increasing the devastation during wildfires.

The problem needs to be attacked from both angles, but each side only sees through its accustomed prism.

UPDATE, 3/29: This would appear to buttress the notion that the overwhelming majority of illegal immigrants pay taxes—and suggest that many do not take benefits out of the system. I understand that some people's observations are going to differ, but I'd really like to get an idea what the big picture is—beyond anecdotes. ('Cause we all like to extrapolate from our own experiences, and that doesn't appear to give us much clarity on this issue.)

Gotta run.

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June 04, 2005

Immigration and Abortion

I've been looking for a flashlight to shine my way through the fog of immigration. Here's one, by a friend of mine who was ostensibly writing about abortion. Not so incidentally, she makes some good points about what amounts, in a lot of cases, to a sub rosa system of indentured servitude.

Or: slavery in the present day in this country.

It has to stop, but I don't think the answer is to militarize the border and to kick all the "illegals" out of the U.S.

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February 22, 2005

The Language of Politics: Immigration and the Blogswarm

One of those little things about political speech: the terms people use to frame an issue serves as a signal to the like-minded about where they stand. This phenomenon has its uses, but if you're writing about current events it never helps to persuade anyone to your point of view. Know the difference between cheerleading and persuasion; make it your friend.

For example, I have plenty to argue about with other SP Repubs in terms of immigration. Matter of fact, it's sort of an exciting time, because no real concensus has emerged among libertarian-leaning righty warmongers on this particular issue. Naturally, Malkin has persuaded a lot of people that the conservative approach—sealing the border, making sure everyone has to stand in line—is the way to go, but it's not really a done deal yet: we haven't tended to swarm one way or the other with respect to immigration policy, and people like Larry Elder and Desert Cat are still advocating a more flexible immigration policy that's libertarian in principle, yet common-sensical in its specifics. The President appears to be working toward this middle ground in his approach.

My sympathies here are with the President, but I listen to everyone. I have to say, though (getting back to my thesis) that whenever I hear the word "illegals," my mind tends to shut down: I figure whoever is throwing that word around is preaching to the converted, and I oughtn't to listen in on their private conversation.

Take-home questions for bloggers and political junkies:

1) When you talk, write, blog, or debate others on political issues, do you use terms that will be meaningful to them, or do you try to strong-arm them into thinking your way with your language?

2) Where are we going here regarding immigration policy? Is this something that the right side of the blogosphere (Malkin aside) hasn't focused on sufficiently? Discuss.

3) Who is doing the best job in covering this issue, other than the illustrious Ms. Malkin? Where are the best arguments for/against liberalization of these policies, a tightening of border controls, or some variation on guest-worker programs? How about amnesty—it that dead, or is there a good way to handle it?

4) When you think about immigration, are you driven by a) security; b) issues of fairness; c) culture and language; or d) economic concerns? How sensitive are you about cultural issues, and is this "fair game," or merely a reflection of prejudices? (That is, where do you draw the line between bigotry versus believing English should be the common language in the U.S. and/or wanting a certain "cultural imprint" on immigrants?)

5) How do immigration concerns in the States differ from those in other Western nations?

UPDATE: Steve at Secure Liberty has some practical, hard-headed suggestions for getting our arms around this problem. However, one element in his plan contains a small measure of "amnesty," a dicey concept (and also a good scare word for the anti-"illegal" hysterics).

And that's the problem at the heart of this: one side insists that we militarize our borders, and throw anyone out who didn't originally come here legally—no matter how long they've been here, how hard they've worked, or how clean a life they've led. The other side wants to ignore the problem entirely.

And, yes, at the fringes there are people who are simply turned off by Latin American culture and want it out of their cities. And at the fringes of my position there probably are corporate interests who want cheap labor, no matter what.

It's another "third rail" issue, for sure.

One more thing: for those of you who insist that this has to do with the "rule of law," and people following the rules no matter what it means to their families' lives, I'm just wondering if your grandparents were adults during Prohibition.

Are you sure they never took a drink? Positive?

How about you? Ever try pot? Not once?

Rule of law, Baby: it's a bitch.

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January 02, 2005

Too Cool.

I made Malkin's blogroll, despite our differences of opinion on how to fix the illegal immigration problem.

She even linked me a few weeks back.

Is this significant beyond my link-whorish existence? Maybe, in a certain symbolic sense: I wondered, after the last Presidential election, whether the neocons, more traditional conservatives, and libertarians who came together to re-elect President Bush would be able to get along at all after the task at hand was finished.

I've had a few spirited discussions lately on hot topics (medical marijuana, gays in the military) with some of the more traditional conservative bloggers and commenters out there, and I've been very encouraged by how rarely these talks degenerate into name-calling. It seems that most of us who would like to see the War on Terror won have been able to keep in mind how important that is, and focus in on it. We do need to hash these other issues out, and engage in the debates we are having now—but it needs to be done right.

Yes, I'll be doing more reading on the immigration issue. And I do agree that the existing "system" isn't any such thing, and is dangerous. So far, I'm pretty libertarian on the issue, and feel that a willing seller of labor and a willing buyer should be able to get together with as few restrictions as possible. (I believe people like me are called "Wall Street Journal" types, and there's usually some implication that we're blinded by our corporate financial interests, which I would desperately love to acquire—gas money for this month would be a nice start.)

But I'm willing to read and learn, and I'll certainly begin with Malkin's primers.

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