January 22, 2005

I Know How Some of You Feel

. . . about Scrappleface, but I don't give a shit. Hop over to this post, and let me know what you think about the subtext.

Should it be permissible for Christian relief workers to "witness" to those they are ministering to, if it is not done in a heavy-handed way? Should they at least be allowed to answer questions about their own faith?

Discuss.

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January 16, 2005

Indian Ocean Tsunami Alerts

It's been impossible to get any good information on why the Indian Ocean didn't have any kind of tsunami alert system in place, a la the Pacific Ocean's U.N.-affiliated warning center. And things just get murkier:

Red tape stopped scientists from alerting countries around the Indian Ocean to the devastating Boxing Day tsunami racing towards their shores.

Scientists at the Tsunami Warning Centre in Hawaii - who have complained about being unable to find telephone numbers to alert the countries in peril - did not use an existing rapid telecommunications system set up to get warnings around the world almost instantly because the bureaucratic arrangements were not in place.

Senior UN officials attending a conference in Mauritius of small island countries - some of them badly hit by the tsunami, now recognised to have been the deadliest in history - revealed that the scientists did not use the World Meteorological Organisation's Global Telecommunication System to contact Indian Ocean countries because the "protocols were not in place".

The system is designed to get warnings from any country to all other nations within 30 minutes.

It was used to alert Pacific countries to the tsunami, even though it affected hardly any of them, and could have been used in the Indian Ocean if the threat had been from a typhoon, officials said, but it could not be used to warn about a tsunami.

Quite a teaser, there—but they don't elaborate on why this is so. I presume that the information exists among typhoon-watchers, but not in the tsunami-monitoring community. We've all heard the stories about people in the Pacific center trying to reach people in authority in Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and Sri Lanka—without success.

[. . .]
There were "approved communication channels" for warnings about tropical cyclones in the area.

Michel Jarraud, secretary-general of the meteorological organisation, said the system had proved to be particularly valuable last year, which was bad for hurricanes in the Caribbean and the Pacific.

But the Governments around the Indian Ocean rejected repeated pressure from Unesco and other UN bodies for a tsunami early-warning system in their area because it was expensive, they had many calls on their resources and there had been no tsunamis in the ocean for more than 100 years.

The UN now says that the Boxing Day tsunami was the deadliest ever. The only one that even begins to rival it smashed through the Mediterranean around 1400BC after the destruction of the island of Santorini. On that occasion 100,000 people are estimated to have died.

* This week several international UN meetings begin in order to establish tsunami warning systems in the Indian Ocean and worldwide over the next 2 1/2 years.

That's odd, because I had heard that the U.N. doesn't charge member countries to be part of a tsunami alert system, and that the nations along the Indian Ocean could, at the least, have joined the Pacific warning center without any cost to them. I have heard that the coastal areas had tremendous resistance to the idea of having tsunami alerts at all, for fear that any false alarms would hurt the tourist trade.

But clearly there's a need, and the Atlantic should have this coverage as well.

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January 15, 2005

Islam in the Indian Ocean

Laurence has a plan that's absolutely diabolical.

I don't condone it, of course. But I wouldn't be 100% surprised if this were attempted.

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January 07, 2005

Instead of Money

If you're looking for a more tangible way to help the tsunami victims, here's a wayyou can buy new items (a list is provided), and have them sent to the troubled areas, via FedEx, for free.

If this is what you want to do, do it today. Let's get that plane filled with necessities for the survivors.

(Esmay.)

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January 04, 2005

More on Tsunami Aid: This Is Not a Competition

Chuck Simmons is keeping a running tally on private American tsunami aid on the left sidebar of his main blog page. Check back with him when you're worried that we're "not doing enough," but keep in mind:

1) This is not a contest among nations; we're all just doing what we can;

2) Some people will always criticize whatever the U.S. does, and we just need to deal with that rather than get all hot and bothered;

3) We aren't likely to get "the highest ranking" on a per-capita basis (I believe that honor goes to the Dutch), and that's okay. The U.S. and the Australians are taking the lead and doing tremendous good over there right now, and we should be happy about that.

This class isn't graded on a curve, okay?

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The Diplomad

. . . has a few updates. Looks like the EUs will mostly follow the UN model (that is, hold meetings) and the Dutch will likely throw their lot in with the group led by the Aussies/Yanks.

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January 03, 2005

The Diplomad

. . . continues to report on the efforts of the Australians/Americans, and the tragic, funny floundering of the U.N.:

In this part of the tsunami-wrecked Far Abroad, the UN is still nowhere to be seen where it counts, i.e., feeding and helping victims. The relief effort continues to be a US-Australia effort, with Singapore now in and coordinating closely with the US and Australia. Other countries are also signing up to be part of the US-Australia effort. Nobody wants to be "coordinated" by the UN. The local UN reps are getting desperate. They're calling for yet another meeting this afternoon; they've flown in more UN big shots to lecture us all on "coordination" and the need to work together, i.e., let the UN take credit. With Kofi about to arrive for a big conference, the UNocrats are scrambling to show something, anything as a UN accomplishment. Don't be surprised if they claim that the USS Abraham Lincoln is under UN control and that President Lincoln was a strong supporter of the UN.

And it gets better/worse:

UPDATE: WFP (World Food Program) has "arrived" in the capital with an "assessment and coordination team." . . . The team has spent the day and will likely spend a few more setting up their "coordination and opcenter" at a local five-star hotel. And their number one concern, even before phones, fax and copy machines? Arranging for the hotel to provide 24hr catering service. USAID folks already are cracking jokes about "The UN Sheraton." Meanwhile, our military and civilians, working with the super Aussies, continue to keep the C-130 air bridge of supplies flowing and the choppers flying, and keep on saving lives -- and without 24hr catering services from any five-star hotel . . . . The contrast grows more stark every minute.

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January 01, 2005

Talk About Your Chicken Soup.

People are doing all sorts of things to help the Tsunami victims in Asia.

Via Kay.

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Have We Discussed Tsunami Relief Lately?

I keep forgetting to check in with The Diplomad daily; there are terrific on-the-ground reports there on Tsunami Relief.

As usual, the U.N. is shown to be talking, much more than walking:

[From the U.N. website] Mr. Egeland: Our main problems now are in northern Sumatra and Aceh.
<...> In Aceh, today 50 trucks of relief supplies are arriving. <...> Tomorrow, we will have eight full airplanes arriving. I discussed today with Washington whether we can draw on some assets on their side, after consultations with the Indonesian Government, to set up what we call an “air-freight handling centre” in Aceh.

Tomorrow, we will have to set up a camp for relief workers – 90 of them – which is fully self-contained, with kitchen, food, lodging, everything, because they have nowhere to stay and we don't want them to be an additional burden on the people there.

I provided this to some USAID colleagues working in Indonesia and their heads nearly exploded. The first paragraph is quite simply a lie. The UN is taking credit for things that hard-working, street savvy USAID folks have done. It was USAID working with their amazing network of local contacts who scrounged up trucks, drivers, and fuel; organized the convoy and sent it off to deliver critical supplies.

A UN “air-freight handling centre” in Aceh? Bull! It's the Aussies and the Yanks who are running the air ops into Aceh. We have people working and sleeping on the tarmac in Aceh, surrounded by bugs, mud, stench and death, who every day bring in the US and Aussie C-130s and the US choppers; unload, load, send them off. We have no fancy aid workers' retreat -- notice the priorities of the UN? People are dying and what's the first thing the UN wants to do? Set up "a camp for relief workers" one that would be "fully self-contained, with kitchen, food, lodging, everything."

So I withdraw my implication that USAID might just be "another pretty NGO," and admire all those who are dealing with the stench of death, delivering food and water. And I spit in the general direction of the U.N.

Over and out.

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More on Tsunami Relief

In my household we were cautious about how we gave, because UNICEF is—of course—loosely tied to those who took food out of Iraqi children's mouths to line their own pockets. And the Red Cross has been actively undermining U.S. policy in any number of ways. Even USAID has an agenda we have deep ambivalence about (they may be "progressive," but they do some fine work in Southeast Asia).

I'm sure any of those agencies would have spent carefully any funds earmarked for Tsunami relief, but we wanted to be absolutely certain that none of our contribution would be diluted by a very large bureaucracy, so we opted to go with Catholic Relief Services, reasoning that any of the church groups would be staffed with a higher number of volunteers (and near-volunteers), and our money would go further.

I'm working on contributing a Blogad to one or more of the groups that are collecting funds, but I'm also going to bend the rules and point out that my Google ads very often link to disaster-relief efforts, so they might also be a good resource (ordinarily, I'm not supposed to call attention to the Google ads, lest I campaign for clicks to 'em). Remember, also, to visit the Command Post Master List of Tsunami charities, which has some breakdowns in terms of countries (for those who want to target their contributions in that way).

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Regular Scrooges, Here in the States

Via Power Line, Chuck Simmons' current tally of privately funded Tsunami relief stands at $169 million. That's not counting the $350 million we're giving via the Federal government, nor the relief administered by our military (which is there on the scene right now, handing out blankets, water and food).

Nor, of course, does it count the fact that many other Western nations can afford to be more generous because they spend precious little on defense—after all, Dad will beat up anyone who picks on them. (And we always do. We probably always will. Though at this point I'd like to bring our dead home from France; I really would.)

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December 31, 2004

Muted Partying

People are celebrating in moderation, and sending some of the money saved to Tsunami relief. Good.

One thing: we know 2005 will be a better year. It has to be. It could not possibly be worse.

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Wildcat Tsunami Relief

James Joyner at OTB has a nice little roundup of reactions to the U.S.-Indian-Japanese-Australian coalition to spearhead relief efforts in wave-torn Asia. Apparently, we are being very naughty in bypassing the U.N.

Fuck that noise.

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December 30, 2004

Asian Tsunami Blog

For the latest.

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December 29, 2004

More on Big Waves

Costas Synolakis writes in the Opinion Journal on warning systems for Tsunamis, and on educating people to run to high ground when they feel tremors and are near the water.

The images from Sri Lanka, India and Thailand that have filled our screens--and the descriptions from survivors--are sadly all too familiar, at least to those of us who have conducted tsunami field surveys. At times, some of us thought that we were revisiting images from Flores in 1992, or East Java in 1994, Irian Jaya in 1996, Papua New Guinea in 1998 and Vanuatu in 1999--to just mention catastrophes in countries with similar landscape and coastal construction.

The response of local residents and tourists, however, was unfamiliar, at least to tsunami field scientists for post-1990s tsunamis. In one report, swimmers felt the current associated with the leading depression wave approaching the beach, yet hesitated about getting out of the water because of the "noise" and the fear that there was an earthquake and they would be safer away from buildings. They had to be told by tourists from Japan--a land where an understanding of tsunamis is now almost hard-wired in the genes--to run to high ground. In another report, vacationers spending the day on Phi Phi were taken back to Phuket one hour after the event started. In many cases tsunami waves persist for several hours, and the transport was nothing less than grossly irresponsible.

Contrast these reactions with what happened in Vanuatu, in 1999. On Pentecost Island, a rather pristine enclave with no electricity or running water, the locals watch television once a week, when a pickup truck with a satellite dish, a VCR and a TV stops by each village. When the International Tsunami Survey Team visited days after the tsunami, they heard that the residents had watched a Unesco video prepared the year before, in the aftermath of the 1998 Papua New Guinea tsunami disaster. When they felt the ground shake during the 1999 earthquake, they ran to a hill nearby. The tsunami swept through, razing the village to the ground. Out of 500 people, only three died, and all three had been unable to run like the others. The tsunami had hit at night.

Which says volumes about the value of education.

The angry questions that hundreds of thousands of family members of victims are asking, especially in Sri Lanka and India, are "what happened?"--and "why did no one warn us before the tsunami hit?" The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center had issued a tsunami bulletin and had concluded that there was no danger for the Pacific nations in its jurisdiction. Why didn't it extend its warning to South and Southeast Asia? It is perhaps clear with hindsight that an Indian Ocean tsunami warning center should have been in place, or that the Indian Ocean nations should have requested coverage from the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center.

Yes.

Clearly, the hazard had been grossly underestimated. To give governments the benefit of the doubt, the last transoceanic tsunami that had hit the region was in 1882, and this was caused by Krakatoa's eruption. Other large earthquakes along the Sumatra trench had not caused major tsunamis, or if they had, they had not been reported as devastating. Floods occur nearly every year, as do storms. Natural hazards that are less frequent tend to be ignored. No nation can be ready for every eventuality--as 9/11 painfully demonstrated--at least before a major disaster that identifies the risk. Without the governments of Indian Ocean nations having identified the risk, they probably did not feel they needed the services of the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, however free. Even simple and inexpensive mitigation strategies such as public education possibly did not even occur as a possibility. The rapid tourist development of Sri Lanka may also have contributed to the government's inaction toward suggesting that some of the region's most beautiful shorelines may have hidden dangers.

But the occurrence of this massive and destructive tsunami does prove that megatsunamis can occur in the Indian Ocean. The Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission should continue its efforts to develop a long-term approach to tsunami hazard mitigation through a coordinated program involving assessment, warning guidance, and mitigation aimed at at-risk communities. Improved numerical wave propagation models, new scientific studies to document paleotsunamis, and the deployment of tsunameters will help better monitor tsunami occurrences and develop inundation maps that will guide evacuation plans. As is done among Pacific nations, Indian ocean scientists, disaster managers, policy makers, and local communities need to work together toward the common goal of creating tsunami-resistant communities with access to accurate, timely tsunami warnings. A tsunami warning center needs to be established as soon as practical in the region, and the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center should act as an interim warning center.

Many developing countries do not have the resources and will need substantial assistance. Even among nations in the Pacific rim, only three have comprehensive inundation maps, and none, including the U.S., have probabilistic tsunami flooding maps that reflect the realities of the past 30 years. Unesco's Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission and the U.S. should help the effort in implementing the U.N.'s global tsunami hazard mitigation plan before the next Asian tsunami disaster strikes.

Please. If we do it right, this disaster can be the "Titanic" tragedy of the 21st Century, encouraging us to at least use our hindsight to accomplish what we wish we'd done from the get-go.

H/T: Dean's World.

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Tsunami Relief

The official Command Post list of charites for Earthquake/Tsunami Relief in the affected countries is being updated constantly. Choose your brand, and move on it.

Hurry, because 1) it's almost the first of the year, and if you get on this now you can deduct it on this year's taxes; and 2) the faster we get the money rolling in, the more we can reduce the "secondary effects" such as the spread of disease from mosquitos, rats, unclean water and so forth.

And pray. Even if you're an agnostic, you might give it a shot—and I'll bet there's extra credit in it.

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