August 13, 2004

Gay vs. Corrupt

Apparently they are not mutually exclusive, but there is a difference.

Says Burnt Orange:

He's a dirtbag for misappropriating funds and cheating on his wife, but until November 15 America has its first openly gay governor.

But BoiFromTroy points out that his homosexuality is not the reason he's stepping down:

OMG! The Governor of New Jersey just came out on national TV. Jim McGreevy (D) has left the closet and cited his homosexual relations as the reason he is unable to continue as Governor. Bullshit.

The virtue of having a gay governor is far outweighed by the fact that he's dirty. And it's shameful that he's exploiting his minority status to provide cover for his misallocation of funds. Furthermore, as Sean Hannity—and others—have been pointing out, the delay in his resignation is a naked power grab by the national Democratic Party, which clearly doesn't want a Republican on the ballot this November, because it would enhance GOP voter turnout and transform New Jersey into a swing state.

I also think that it's illuminating that Hannity himself—an obnoxious social conservative a lot of the time—dismisses any idea that the voters really care about a public official being gay. "Most of us are libertarian on that kind of thing." Wish he asserted things like that more often.

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Speaking of 527s . . .

What fun.

Via Dean Esmay.

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August 12, 2004

Kerry Campaign, RIP

I talked to my husband last night, and got the report from the Midwest. He's been in Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois. Since he's doing interviews about Vietnam, it's almost impossible for the subject of John Kerry not to come up. He keeps talking to lifetime, dyed-in-the-wool Democrats who simply cannot bring themselves to vote for this man.

Could Kerry have been marketable? I kind of think so, had the Democrats used the same strategy with him that they did with Clinton: what's past is past. Vietnam was over 30 years ago.

But by making "Vietnam war hero" his middle name, they have destroyed the possibility of Kerry winning.

NZ Bear maintains that the Swift Boat Vets issue will kill the Kerry campaign:

Up until now, Kerry has gotten a pass on his Vietnam time: the general impression has been "He talks about it too much, but he was some kind of war hero back in Vietnam". Now, there's an alternate perspective: "Not only does he talk about it too much, but he's actually a liar." From the 10,000 foot view of the average voter, the Swifties don't have to prove their case in a court of law for Kerry to take damage: they just have to throw a bit of doubt onto the lily-white image he's portrayed thus far. In that, they've already succeeded.

But it's not that bad: it's actually much worse. The biggest problem for Kerry is that the Swifties' attacks confirm what we really want to believe about him anyway. He's been so damned annoying about his Vietnam record that we secretly want to think the worst of him, and now the Swifties have provided a rational basis for that gut-level irritation that Kerry inspires when he blathers on about his war record. This isn't just bad for Kerry, it's disasterous: the amorphous negative that normal people have when exposed to Kerry's "leadership, courage, and sacrifice" / "three purple hearts" mantra now has a core of fact -- or at least, alleged fact --- around which to crystalize.

And there is the not-uncommon feeling that "real heroes don't blow their own trumpets."

But the Swifties are only part of it. The entire campaign appears to be predicated on the idea that military people are stupid, and you can flip them off, if you do it subtly enough. No Vietnam vet is going to find it easy to support a guy who came back and accused them of war crimes—and the more Kerry brags about his mini-service, the more people are going to be reminded of this.

And then the sloppy salute at the convention. The "reporting for duty" line. Very distasteful to veterans, current members of the armed forces, and their families. (Civilians are not supposed to salute, and even soldiers, sailors and marines don't do this out of uniform.)

Now we have the Swift Vets story, which as NZ points out doesn't have to be proven—their account simply has to be strong enough to create doubt in people's minds. NZ again:

Unless Kerry's campaign manages to completely discredit the Swifties --- which seems increasingly unlikely --- the campaign is over; Kerry is done. And after Election Day has passed, I expect that anyone looking backwards will wonder why in the world the Democrats ever thought making Kerry's Vietnam service a centerpiece was a good idea in the first place.

It wasn't a good idea at all. No matter how weak his Senate record—or his record as Lt. Gov.—marketing him on the basis of four months in Vietnam three decades ago was a terrible strategy.

There are a lot of people out there, many of them working-class and blue-collar folk, who would have loved to vote for practically any sentient being with a "D" after his/her/its name. And they are going to sit this one out.

It's not enough for people to hate Bush; you have to give them a positive reason to pick your guy.

It is over.

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August 06, 2004

Is Language Necessary?

Bill at InDC lays out a spirited defense of Smirky McHalliburton.

(h/t: protein wisdom)

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More Goldstein

He gives us another "real-time empirical observation":

As you read this post, the DNC is drawing up the paperwork for a legal challenge to “right turn on red” laws in a number of key swing states.  Lawyers for the DNC will argue that principalities allowing right turns on red “are creating an unfair advantage for the Republican party by rewarding motorists who turn right.” Because the DNC, as everyone knows, has lost its motherfucking mind.

Now go read his entire main page, which is pure gold. (Or pure Goldstein.)

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Cash and Kerry

Blackfive has the transcript of the TV confrontation between the two men who are arguing about Kerry's Bronze star, and what happened that day in 1969. Good discussion in the comments section (as always, skip past the trolls).

The Swifties are definitely losing some credibility. However, there is a lot of real rage at John Kerry among Vietnam veterans who feel that he betrayed the cause by coming home and agitating against the war. Many feel strongly that he is lying in his allegations of widespread war crimes by Americans.

So this schism between Kerry and most members of the military is not going to go away, irrespective of whether the Swifties are telling the truth.

And we're still waiting to see Kerry's medical records; a lot of people are having trouble wrapping their minds around the fact that this guy bailed out after 120 days or whatever, without having sustained severe wounds. (The "musta been a papercut" allegation.)

Live by your service, die by your service. Kerry opened himself up to this.

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August 05, 2004

Calling All Democrats

Bill at INDC mentions the Wall of China separating the Democratic Party from reasonable discourse. Its name, of course, is Michael Moore.

If for nothing else, the post summarizes very quickly the case that Moore shouldn't be taken seriously by anyone (much less a former Head of State), and features a lively comment section that includes reasonable discussion a lot of the time: it's a blogger's wet dream.

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August 03, 2004

Risky Business

In case you missed it, The Mudville Gazette is having a caption contest, and it's full of truth, beauty—and speculation about what would have happened to Senator Kerry's finger at this Wendy's photo op had there not been Secret Service agents present, or had these young men not been in uniform. My favorite?—"Nunquam Fi." (Never faithful.)

Go and read. Contribute your own. But don't troll—it's the Marines, after all.

bang.jpg

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July 31, 2004

Kerry On

The Command Post is running this report that the Kerry campaign bus stopped at a Wendy's where a group of Marines were eating lunch. Spotting them, Kerry walked over to shake their hands. The men were polite—all "yes, Sir," "no, Sir"—but made it clear to reporters afterward that they were Bush supporters and didn't appreciate Kerry's imposition on their time and attention.

What a surprise.

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July 30, 2004

Andy Redeems Himself. Kind Of.

Okay. I take it all back. It's okay to send him money after all, if you really must.

Sullivan on Teresa Heinz Kerry:

Do her words matter? Probably not. But I have a couple of serious worries. THK is the classic hyper-rich liberal female. Like many absurdly wealthy people, she is not used to actually engaging people as equals. Few speak back to her. She is also unused to real debate. She has never run for office, and although her philanthropic record is stellar and deeply admirable, her political ideas are half-baked and run completely counter to the centrist message this convention has been so shrewdly sending out. So how did she get away with such a spot? I fear that she got what she wanted merely because she insisted; and that her insistence is enough to get her anything she wants. That is not a good omen for a future Kerry administration. We already endured one unelected condescender as co-president for eight years. But mercifully, Hillary Rodham Clinton is now a legitimate politician, elected in her own right, as all democratic leaders ought to be. THK is another matter.

It's hard not to like her. I'd love to have dinner with her. I'm sure she's a wonderful spouse, great mother, and peerless philanthropist. But she is now officially a liability for Kerry's campaign. And the campaign let it happen. If Kerry's advisers want to win, they'd better tell her to quiet down and take a backseat to the man who is actually running for office. And if she won't, someone, somewhere, is going to have to tell her to shove it.


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Jeff Goldstein

gives us another campaign update:

Smoked a fatty with a clatch of Willy Nelson roadies during an early afternoon sound check, and I’m happy to report that there really are two Americas.  There must be.  Because weed of this quality doesn’t come from any America I know of, that’s for damn sure.

Off to find me some snacking chips.  Or maybe a Mallow Pie.  Developing…

update:  Time for a nap.

There's more where that came from. Go. Now.

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July 29, 2004

OMG!

I guess they went with John Kerry.

That's not what I would have done.

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July 26, 2004

The Dean Esmay Pledge

Dean has an interesting question on his site, and a strong challenge to American conservatives and libertarians, should Kerry be elected President:

How many of you will have the patriotism to say, "I disagree with many of his policy directions, I do not think he is conducting our foreign policy in the right way, but I will do my best to get behind him and support him until elections come around next time?"

I'm genuinely curious. For that is the stance I intend to take. I will refuse to call him traitor, loser, liar, incompetent. He will be my President, my Commander In Chief, the Chief Executive of a great nation, elected by the will of a majority of the electors in these 50 great united States. So even if he does things I disagree with in conducting foreign policy, I will say, "I respectfully disagree with the President's directions, but I will do my best to express my dissent respectfully and hope that I am mistaken and that he has made the proper decisions after all."



I keep thinking about the Oklahoma City bombing. The day it happened, Rush Limbaugh told people it was time to get behind the President of the United States and not to criticize the decisions he made that day—and he said it with passion. For Limbaugh, all partisan concerns stopped in the wake of a terrorist threat. That's how it ought to be.

My version of the Esmay Pledge contains the caveat reiterated by many of his commenters: I'll keep my criticisms respectful, but if he lies to the country as its Commander-in-Chief I will call him on that.

Anything less would be unpatriotic.

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July 24, 2004

They Say It'll Be Close

Ahoy, Maties.

This AP story gives us a summary of the map as it now stands:

BOSTON - John Kerry narrowly trails President Bush in the battle for the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House, as he makes his case at the Democratic National Convention this week to topple the Republican incumbent.

With three months remaining in a volatile campaign, Kerry has 14 states and the District of Columbia in his column for 193 electoral votes. Bush has 25 states for 217 votes, according to an Associated Press analysis of state polls as well as interviews with strategists across the country.

"It's a tough, tough map. I think it's going to be a close race," said Democratic strategist Tad Devine, who helped plot Al Gore's state-by-state strategy in 2000 and plays the same role for Kerry.

"But looking back four years, we're much stronger now. I think we're going into this convention in great shape," he said.

Both candidates are short of the magic 270 electoral votes. The margin of victory will come from:

* TOSSUPS — Bush and Kerry are running even in 11 states with a combined 128 electoral votes. Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Michigan and West Virginia are the toughest battlegrounds. Two other tossups, Pennsylvania and Oregon, could soon move to Kerry's column.

* LEAN KERRY — Maine, Minnesota and Washington (a combined 25 electoral votes) favor Kerry over Bush by a few percentage points. Gore carried them in 2000.

* LEAN BUSH — North Carolina, Colorado, Louisiana, Arizona, Virginia, Arkansas and Missouri (a combined 73 electoral votes) give Bush modest leads. He won all seven in 2000.

All total, 21 states are in play. Some will bounce between "lean" to "tossup" throughout the campaign.

But there's this to consider:

Four years ago, Bush won 30 states and their 271 electoral votes — one more than needed. Gore, who won the popular vote, claimed 20 states plus the District of Columbia for 267 electoral votes.

Since then, reapportionment added electoral votes to states with population gains and took them from states losing people. The result: Bush's states are now worth 278 electoral votes and Gore's are worth just 260.

Which is one reason that, in my optimistic moments, I envision a landslide for Bush. Though we'll see about that.

I do not, for the record, believe Florida is in play. Not with the panhandle turning out in force: that's tens of thousands of votes. No. Florida will go to the GOP.

And then, there's the Pennsylvania factor:

Of the states won by Gore, Pennsylvania is by far Bush's top target. The president has spent millions of dollars in the state on commercials and has visited it more than any other contested state — 30 trips since his inauguration.

For Kerry, losing Pennsylvania would create a virtually insurmountable electoral vote gap.

On the other hand, I don't believe California is in play at all—Arnold, Nixon and Reagan notwithstanding, the Bay Area and LA will probably keep this one in Kerry's column. But I'm still going to vote my little heart out. Of course, if I'm wrong Kerry might as well take his dollies and go home.

Hat tip: Newsfeed.

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July 16, 2004

Moseying Down Memory Lane

Allah has a new poster idea for the Kerry-Edwards campaign:

KE.jpg

This should really energize the campaign.

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