. . . by Karl over at Protein Wisdom.

It summarizes, I believe, why Iowa is such a poor predictor of success in the actual nomination.

But, you know: the media are bored, so they plug the polls and make Iowa more important than it really is at this point.

New Hampshire/Wyoming/Michigan may give us some idea this year, but I personally don't think that with this short a cycle we're going to know anything until it's just about over, on Super Duper Amazing Fabulous Incredible Tuesday.

And, speaking of Super Duper Amazing Fabulous Incredible Tuesday, did I mention that Fred and Rudy are the most electable guys we have? The latter might even put the Golden State into play, and that would make things very interesting indeed.

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But no one who didn't start campaigning for this election in the 20th century has any business doing it now.

Sheesh.

Via Insty.

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In retrospect, one of the things that may strike people about the Fred Thompson campaign iis his contrariness—his unwillingness to "go along to get along."

I think he's trying to bring a new paradigm to political communication; one of the singular characteristics of his presence in public life is his unwillingness to play, as The Anchoress puts it, "the games that have overtaken US political campaigns. She adds, "heÂ’s intent on holding the press—and maybe all of us—to a higher standard than weÂ’ve become used to."

Via Hackbarth (who does a lot of blogging on the official Fred campaign site) comes Thompson's message directly to Iowans themselves:

Several things strike me about this video: (1) It is on the long side, in a good way—10 or 15 minutes, I believe [though I did not time it]. This is no conventional political ad. Thompson is not afraid to give all the reasons he feels he'll do the best job of both governing the country and winning the general election in order to accomplish that. No sound bites. None.

Also, (2) Fred struck a deft balance between criticizing the Bush administration and suggesting he'll continue the positive aspects of its legacy. He made sure to underscore the fact that the current Congress' approval ratings are even lower than Bush's are. (He didn't quite spell the statistics out, but alluded to the negative numbers; to anyone who's been paying attention, it will be clear enough.) The telling points: he mentioned Bush and Rice calling him up to consult with him—thereby setting up a link between himself and the things people voted for when they re-elected Bush in 2004—but he stated very clearly that he would communicate positively with the American people about what he would do as their leader. The obvious contrast was with G.W. Bush's, um, lackdaisical approach to selling/explaining his policies and decisions. Thompson is obviously claiming he'll do better on than critical score.

(3) There was at least one Southern colloquialism in the speech, which was a nice touch. It was "we might could," or one of those similiar constructions one hears only in Texas and the South. That sort of thing doesn't happen by accident from someone as cosmopolitan as the Fredster. More than the Bush/Carter use of "nucular," it sets Thompson up as an outside-the-beltway kind of guy—at least on a cultural level. Also, it doesn't nauseate most of the rest of us the way "nucular" does.

(4) Tedious as it was to hear Thompson mention Reagan's name—because I've been listening to political speeches for a year now, and I'm bored with the traditional allusion to The Gipper—I didn't think it was inappropriate in this particular case, because what Reagan was able to do more than nearly any other President in history was bypass the media. And furthermore, he did it in the age before blogs and YouTube.

Thompson clearly has more tools at his command, but his message to the legacy media is essentially one we've been waiting to hear for a couple of decades: "FY, NQ." ("Fuck you, next question": a phrase usually credited to the crew over at Ace of Spades HQ.)

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So, I've forgotten: is Glen Greenwald a total idiot, or a liar? Just askin'.

Why does Salon continue to give this guy space? His response to Peggy Noonan's roundup of the Presidential field is simply an embarrassment to political discourse. He actually claimed that her reference to him [Edwards] poofing his hair was an allusion to the British slang noun poof, which denotes a homosexual. Then Greenwald backpedaled and suggested that even if her criticism of Edwards' grooming habits weren't a slur regarding his sexual preference, it somehow amounted to the same thing. Wow.

I mean, if this is an ignorance problem, we could send Greenwald an American dictionary, or a guide to basic grammar (which would help clear up his noun/verb confusion).

Or, perhaps we someone could sit him down and explain the difference between one's sexual orientation and one's attitude toward hair care.

I don't happen to share Noonan's views: I think it's reasonable to pay attention to one's appearance when one is in public life, and I found the YouTube video of Edwards prepping for a TV appearance to be dirty pool. But Noonan is entitled to her opinion, and conflating her statement that we "can't have" a vain guy as a President with a commentary on Edwards' sexuality is . . . well, as I said, either stupid or profoundly dishonest.

Via Protein Wisdom, which is a motherlode of commentary on the subject.

Joyner weighs in:

Noonan is guilty here of being banal rather than tawdry. ItÂ’s the opposite of Coulterism, really.

Yup.

My thoughts over at Jeff's place are below the fold. Read on only if you have an editorial background and a strong stomach for linguistic nitpicking. more...

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I happen to think that if the Obama people stiffed their waiter out of [most of] his tip, it is a big story.

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Not lazy at all.

Gets the job done.

Thanks to Insty.

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Not only is this Blogburst Thursday for the big FDT—it's also the day before the deadline for the Iowas media buy (the funds need to hit their bank by 3:00 Pacific, tomorrow).

I just sent my contribution in; it's my way of telling the MSM to lick it, Baby. (That's the XX-chromosome version of "suck it," of course .)

I can't get the contribution widget to work on my site, so here's a link to the campaign site, where you can give directly.

From the folks at the Dalton Nerve Center, on behalf of Teh Mighty Fred:

We have a terrific new TV spot. You can see it now at Fred08.com. Take a look, and forward this message on to 10 of your friends.

I need your help to put it on the air. We need to put $248,846 in the bank before 6 PM EST on Friday, December 28th to do it.

Can you help me by making a contribution today? I know IÂ’ve asked a lot, and youÂ’ve done a lot, but this is critical to our success. Help me make history.

The Clear Conservative Choice: Hands Down bus tour will run from today to caucus day. We have a terrific ground game in place.

All we need is air cover—which the spot on our website will provide.

That's what they said. But what they really meant was "Suck it, Biased Legacy Media."

UPDATE: Here's the commercial; I think it's a good one:

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. . . that the Thompson campaign has some exciting potential media buys lined up, and if you're planning on contributing, the next few days (for Iowa) or the next few weeks (leading into Super Duper Incredible Amazing Tuesday) are the best time frames. Preferably the former, of course.

I plan on sending them my own modest contribution today or tomorrow, to round out my Christmas spending. Sort of a gift to myself. After all, I always get one thing for myself around this time of year; it's only fair.

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Quite startling. Unexpected, you might say.

We can't just go by our gut. Let's compare the main attributes of Fred Thompson versus the other candidates:

Fred Thompson: Teh Awesome

Other Candidates: Teh Suck

I believe when you lay things out this way, the reasons to support Fred Thompson over the other candidates becomes obvious, especially since IMAO has long held the position that "Teh Awesome" is better than "Teh Suck." And, in this time when our country is threatened by terrorists, weenies, and goobers, it's that more important we elect someone awesome—a strong conservative who will kill and hurt those who need killing and hurting.

Upon sober reflection, I do believe that good old Frank J. has a point, there.

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. . . from Iowahawk, of course. Burge points out that Iowans are "uniquely qualified" to serve as our "electoral overlords":

Historically, Iowa is neither strongly Republican nor Democrat, conservative nor liberal. It is near the median in state population and in the middle of the country, with an average per-capita income. Iowans speak in flat, unaccented Midwestern English, and avoid conflict and spicy foods. Iowans have a long tradition of political centrism borne of a strong libertarian desire to steer clear of government interference, along with an equally strong desire for federal subsidy checks to help better enjoy the government non-interference.

This heritage of fierce independent passive-aggressive blandness makes Iowa a valuable front line defense against political extremism from the right or left. America can trust Iowa to "weed out" any presidential candidates with non-centrist ideas, or extreme accents like "California surfer dude." Iowa is a swing state, and candidates who want to succeed here must show they are hardcore, balls-to-the-wall moderate swingers.

"How fah is it to Hahvahd Yahd?" A long goddamn way from Cedar Rapids, pal. So start walking.

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I have had it with these mother-fucking snakes

. . . in this mother-fucking campaign!

h/t: Ace, who remarks: "I have no real problem with the sentiment and actually think it's a savvy little ad. Jim Geraghty calls it brilliant, and I agree. But brilliant in a dishonest way: Huck continues insulting the intelligence of the GOP base by running a Christmas greetings ad supposedly putting aside politics for 'what really matters,' when obviously this is a blatantly political ad designed to boost his appeal. And, furthermore, boost his appeal by running, yet again, on his religiosity.

I don't remember getting video Christmas greetings from Mike Huckabee when he wasn't running for president. Do you? Am I to understand this is the first time in history that it was important to set aside politics for 'what really matters' in a political season?"

Well, it depends upon what really matters. Perhaps what matters to Huck is that the Iowa caucus reflect current polling trends in that state. In that case, we should definitely set aside anything that might change our minds about the field of GOP hopefuls.

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. . . oh, yeah.

It's going to get interesting from here on out.

Via Hawkins, via Reynolds.

Hawkins: "If Fred wants to win the election, all he has to do is put this in constant rotation in Iowa and his victory would be guaranteed . . . or he would actually drop into last place. One or the other."

Reynolds: "If he's got the guts to run this in Iowa and New Hampshire, he's got my vote . . . ."

And, of course, one has to throw up a link to sloganmaster Frank J., under the circumstances.

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Althose is running the same photo of Mrs. Clinton that Drudge has been highlighting.

Dry winter air doesn't do great things for anyone's skin—save maybe that of teenagers. And I still think Mrs. C. would have been better off with a face lift, vs. the botox—when she pops her eyes out to show emotion there's something creepy about it. But the state of the art is still imperfect.

Here's the deal: I understand that people are, as a general rule, idiots. But I'm still not sure that the average voter will be deciding a Presidential election on the basis of whose skin is smoothest.

I mean, what's next? Swimsuit competitions? My father would love it (particularly if he can fantasize that Condi will answer Dick Morris's call by jumping into the race to oppose Mrs. C.). But despite the flirtation of some evangelicals with the Huckabee campaign, I'd like to think that the average voter at least sees some seriousness in a Presidential election. On some level.

We need a leader with a backbone of steel . . . someone like Golda.

Now whether that person is a man or a woman has yet to be determined. But let's not shoot ourselves in the foot by using face-texture as a litmus test. That's the last thing we need right now. It wouldn't help Thompson or McCain very much.

Just a shout-out to my Democratic buddies: if you vote for Obama—or Edwards—over Mrs. C, make sure it's for the right reasons. Don't break my fucking heart.

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James Joyner on the Huckabee phenomenon, and why it's scaring the shit out of thoughtful conservatives such as Peggy Noonan, Charles Krauthammer, and Jim Geraghty.

Am I scared? I'm concerned: I'm seeing the moment of the party's greatness flicker, and I'm seeing the Eternal Footman hold our coats, and snicker. It's like that.

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Via Sean, Fred refuses to play stupid games such as delivering a "show of hands" regarding global warming.

I told you not to make Fred angry. But did you listen? No.

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Everybody gets gastric bypass surgery—and everybody lies about it.

Especially in Arkansas.

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You won't like Fred when he's angry. (Though you'll probably end up voting for him, despite yourself.)

"The nuclear program is the most important part of the Iran consideration. For a presidential candidate not to know that and not to keep up with that is very surprising,” said Thompson.

“These are the kinds of things I’ve been talking about all of my life. Now, if the American people have other priorities, if they want someone who smiles a lot more than I do, or someone who is a better quipster than I am, who has no experience in these areas, that’s for the American people to decide.”

Meanwhile, Ace suggests that Huckabee might want to express his private religious convictions in a more private way, rather than using public money for charitable work (via high taxes) and pardoning criminals because they've supposedly converted to his own faith. Some separation of Church and State, he seems to feel, may still be called for:

It appears the primary reason Huckabee sought to release DuMond was the fact that he had found Christ, though, it should be said, apparently he was still looking for Christ inside of the women he would later rape and kill.

When the Huckabee bubble bursts, we'll still be back to Rudy and Fred.

There are things I love about Rudy, but he is not a big civil rights guy (on guns, especially, or on any other issue). Fred "gets" the separation-of-powers thing, and he still takes terrorism seriously.

I don't want a fun President. I want one who will do the job. Part of the job is scaring the shit out of autocratic and dictatorial leaders elsewhere on the globe. Sorry about that, but it's so.

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No. Just no.

I don't think I could vote for Huckabee. I just cannot envision doing that. He's at the far end of statism—just because it claims to be benevolent doesn't make it any less a dictatorship.

No.

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Ace has the scoop.

Money quote:

He really cares about my health.

It's nice and all, but here's the deal, Nurse Mike H: If I want a fucking full-time health monitor I'll fucking get married, all right?

Which is funny, of course. Though possibly slightly denigrating to women . . . or, um . . . men . . . or, um . . . robots . . . or um . . . beasts . . . or, um . . . whatever it is that Ace has in mind when he types the word "marriage."

Not that there's anything wrong with whatever-that-might-be.

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1 You mis-spelled "breasts". HTH. HAND. Big Brother is Watching.

Posted by: I R A Darth Aggie at December 09, 2007 06:34 AM (1hM1d)

2

Posted by: Attila Girl at December 09, 2007 03:34 PM (aywD+)

3 Though possibly slightly denigrating to women Oh? I take it you've never been married to one then...

Posted by: Desert Cat at December 10, 2007 12:05 AM (DIr0W)

4 Well, no. I haven't. Though there's one woman I have to put up with 24 hours a day . . .

Posted by: Attila Girl at December 10, 2007 12:28 AM (aywD+)

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I know my negativity about Ron Paul is annoying people, but I just cannot get around his attitude toward the war, which seems short-sighted to me. This terrorism dealiebopper is a long, tough game of chess, and I don't much like the Paul strategy (nor the general tendancy of big-L Libertarians toward isolationism).

And then there's this.

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