James Joyner discusses the . . . interesting look of the campaigns right now:

Overall, Electoral Vote.com has it at Kerry 301, Bush 213 at the moment while Scott Elliot at Election Projection has an even more sizeable lead based on his predictive formula: Kerry 327, Bush 211.

Clearly, this is Kerry's race to lose at the moment. That's not overly surprising given the fact that we're in the middle of a controversial war. Plus, of the four biggest states, the Democrats have a virtual lock on two (California and New York), while the Republicans have only one gimme (Texas) with Florida as a perennial swing state (although trending Democrat owing to migration trends).

The Republicans need to have a very good convention.

I'm going to hang tough, and repeat what I've been saying all along: It'll be Bush, and by a comfortable margin.

The GOP convention is coming up, and Bush will get a decent bounce from it. The debates are coming up, and he's going to clean Kerry's clock.

When people wake up on Election Day they'll be thinking about their own safety and security more than "let's get a guy into the White House who's fluent in French." And all those people who hate Bush so much they are going to hold their noses and vote for Kerry are going to sleep late that day, rather than stop by the polls on the way to work.

That's how it goes.

Posted by: Attila at 01:21 AM | Comments (2) | Add Comment
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