July 20, 2008
Fun Ways to Fight Poverty.
Via a link at
The! New! Ace of Spades! (posted by one of his "morons" as an "open blog" dealio), I got turned on to a series of
PM articles about this rather amazing woman, MIT's
Amy Smith, who works with people in the developing world to figure out ways to make life easier, healthier, and more productive.
It seems to go along with a lot of what I've been reading in Zubrin's book, about how if we switch from petroleum-based products to (phased-in) alcohol-based energy sources (ethanol and methanol), we could really transform life in some of the most poverty-stricken areas of the world. Ethanol, especially, can be made from so many kinds of biomass that it might really level the playing field between farmers in rich nations and farmers in the Third World, without throwing the former out of work. Creating a market for ethanol would be, in effect, to make a bigger agricultural pie for the entire world.
And then we might see "free trade" and "fair trade" co-exist. Which means that the libertarians and the progressives would have to fight about other issues. Fortunately, we're unlikely to run out of 'em any time soon.
Which is why I've come to believe that (at least in the short term) there's nothing wrong with making biofuels out of edible materials like corn and soybeans: the higher the prices for these materials, the more of 'em will get planted. And the more ethanol becomes a standard fuel, the more of it will get made out of nonedible material, or material that is otherwise a waste-product from producing food (stalks and leaves from corn; bananas that do not make it to market before they become overripe).
If we build cars that can run on ethanol, it will come.
Posted by: Attila Girl at
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If this actually will reduce poverty, the progressives will fight it to the death. The environmentalists want prosperity limited to progressive circles, and progressives rely too much on environmentalist support to risk their sitting out an election.
Posted by: John at July 21, 2008 03:36 AM (SgXoe)
Posted by: david foster at July 21, 2008 05:11 AM (ke+yX)
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Which is why I've come to believe that (at least in the short term) there's nothing wrong with making biofuels out of edible materials like corn and soybeans: the higher the prices for these materials, the more of 'em will get planted.
True.
The problem with that is at least in the US, corn is being planted where historically it has not. And requires irrigation. This is cutting back on wheat production, and has lead us to the point where we are beginning to import wheat.
But with the prices going up, that means food prices will also go up. At which price-point will the poor begin to starve? keep in mind that farmers never starve, unless it's a terrible crop failure.
Or Josef Stalin is involved...
Posted by: I R A Darth Aggie at July 21, 2008 05:32 AM (1hM1d)
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Do you mean the poor here? Or in other countries?
Posted by: Attila Girl at July 21, 2008 09:19 AM (1q/ac)
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Those crop wastes and residues, the feedstock for those ethanol/methanol schemes, are what keep those area marginally fertile in the absence of chemical fertilizers. Divert these into new uses and you'll have a real famine on your hands.
Posted by: Darrell at July 21, 2008 10:23 AM (bXboJ)
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Do you have links for me? They'll look great with my new kimono . . . though I don't think they'll be as pretty.
Posted by: Attila Girl at July 21, 2008 06:31 PM (1q/ac)
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It is a fusion Japanese/American/Chinese
Yukata/robe. Imperial silk, once forbidden to own outside the Chinese Emperor's circle. Under penalty of death. Don't worry. Capitalism makes it OK now. There is a legend about bare skin. And about magic cooling when needed and warming when that's appropriate, too. Wears like iron--great for every day use. Some women like it slightly above the knee. In your case that means you can have a pillow case too. There are stories with each tree peony blossom. Ask me about it someday. I think the price of email will one day be the same as here.
No links. I just know that decaying organic matter enriches the soil. And most of those areas involved in famine have poor soils for a variety of reasons, including climate.
Posted by: Darrell at July 21, 2008 07:25 PM (MmXfn)
Posted by: Steel pallet" rel="nofollow">钢托盘 at March 07, 2009 06:18 AM (xEqmt)
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July 19, 2008
Housing and the Madness of Crowds
I was intrigued by
this article in
The Atlantic that discussed the housing bubble, and in a sort of Malcolm
Gladwell-esque way, suggested that economic "bubbles" might be treated like viruses, and prevented in analogous ways to how we work to contain the spread of diseases.
I was of two minds about the premise: on the one hand, I suspect we will be able to eliminate bubbles easily once we eliminate human nature. But another part of me feels that—as Professor Sowell himself has suggested—a certain level of economic literacy is required for any citizen to function effectively in society, and that teaching our kids a bit more about the dangers of "over-exuberant" speculation might really work to take the edge off of economic highs and lows.
Thoughts? Can bubbles be avoided? Will the housing collapse have far-reaching effects over the next several years? And given how ingrained this sort of behavior is into human nature, is there something we should be teaching the youngsters that might do them any good? (Or will they, as young people are wont to do, insist on learning the hard way?)
(X-posted at Right Wing News.)
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Yes, teach more economics. Yes, make sure that laws aren't passed to make sure banks give out bad loans. Yes, don't let fannie mae and freddie mac get out of control. And yes, don't bail them out or they will do it again.
I know grown ups who were told it was a bubble, and they didn't listen, because they knew that iif their risk didn't pay off, they would probably get a bail out. They knew they wouldn't be expected to be resposible.
Posted by: silvermine at July 19, 2008 11:48 AM (1hq6Q)
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I gotta defer to Silvermine's wisdom. All I know is that I've been responsible, and didn't take a loan that I couldn't afford to buy a house I couldn't afford. And now I'm going to get penalized for being responsible? WTF??
On the other hand, once the bubble completely collapses and the house market finally finishes tanking, I might be able to find a real deal.
Assuming someone will loan me money...
Posted by: I R A Darth Aggie at July 19, 2008 12:23 PM (1hM1d)
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Teaching more economics would be a good thing, but it probably doesn't do much good unless the person first learns some basic math. You need at least some level of comfort with numbers and with mathematical reasoning.
Equally important is the ability to read & understand documents that are complex and intimidating-looking....like loan agreements.
A big problem with bubbles is that most of the media has collective ADD, and doesn't do well in providing historical perspectives. How many publications or TV shows were suggesting, circa early 2007, that the housing boom might not go on forever?
Posted by: david foster at July 19, 2008 12:27 PM (ke+yX)
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The effect will probably be minimal except for those poor sods directly under the hay bale. We all know people crushed after the S&L collapse and dotcom billionaires that retired and now live in genteel poverty in Oregon but land has intrinsic value and even foreclosed properties are worth something, lesser fools, or as like to call them "greedy bastards", will make money on them.
Tulips are a major cash crop in Holland these days and helping out land speculators was one of the things that got Alexander Hamilton shot. He insisted on funding the revolutionary war debt at par which helped out speculators that bought the paper from soldiers at a discount. Outrage at this was one of the issues that caused the Democratic party and when Jackson and his Specie Circular... Oh never mind.
The only way to avoid these things is to not participate and the last time I looked people needed places to live. You can try to eliminate the greater fool with transparency as they try to in the stock market but as any one with Indy Mac stock will tell you transparency is no substitute for clairvoyance.
As far as I can tell people began to view their homes as investments and traded up based on an expected rise in equity and ignoring the cost of debt service. When the cost of debt exceeded income the lien holders issued what essentially amounts to a margin call and the owner was forced to sell. When supply crossed the demand curve the house of cards collapsed and the foreclosure follies began.
Short of re-animating Henry George I don't know what we can do, I have a stock broker that turned a personal fortune into a tidy nest egg and a son in law presumptive who is a licensed financial adviser that works as a bartender. After bankruptcy and squandering the income from a lucrative career, I have learned one thing don't borrow more than you can afford to pay back and don't gamble more than you can afford to lose.
OK that's two things, did I mention I am the CEO of IndyMac bank? Oh and its also better to play with the house's money.
Posted by: Sejanus at July 19, 2008 01:52 PM (KxjVC)
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Yes, hindsight is 20/20. Free markets function best when free. Resist the urge to go to the dark side.
Posted by: Darrell at July 19, 2008 01:58 PM (U/81g)
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Bubbles and business cycles are caused by the inflationary monetary policy of the Federal Reserve central bank - an government institution created by Congress. When the Federal Reserve manipulates interest rates a disharmony between the plans of businessmen and the time preferences of consumers occur. If you a interested in this topic, I encourage you to visit www.mises.org. The great economist Ludwig von Mises developed this business cycle theory and F.A. Hayek later won a Nobel prize for his elaborations on the theory. More government intervention into the economy will not make bubbles go away - it's what causes them in the first place.
Posted by: Brandon at July 20, 2008 10:30 PM (eB8Xp)
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I apologize for the typos. It's 2:30am.
Posted by: Brandon at July 20, 2008 10:32 PM (eB8Xp)
Posted by: Steel pallet" rel="nofollow">钢托盘 at March 06, 2009 06:55 AM (rRj/C)
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July 09, 2008
Essay Question
Friend Rin is back in the country, and would like to know how, exactly, the lives of people in developing countries have been improved by capitalism and trade.
Please don't giggle; just break it down in the most logical fashion you can, because I don't have the heart to assign her Thomas Friedman's The World is Flat as summer reading—particularly given how each revision of that book seems to make it longer and longer. It's like the Gravity's Rainbow of popular economics.
Better, perhaps, to give her the juicy Thomas Sowell Econ primer I started right before we moved. Unfortunately, it hasn't shown up just yet: I definitely outwitted myself when I packed it.
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July 08, 2008
In Defense
. . . of
futures trading, with a lesson from the past in case Congress decides to blame them for the current energy crisis.
They will anyway, of course. What else are they going to do?—look in the mirror?
Via Insty.
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