The hills have been especially gorgeous today, half-shrouded in the sky by clouds of ambiguous intent. Every winter I'm astonished again at how beautiful Southern California is during the winter, in between rains.

And downstairs our little patch of grass is visible. A baby bunny kept emerging today from the bushes to eat the green shoots.

Now it's dusk, and I won't be able to see the mountains or animals for much longer. And I'm raging, raging against the dying of the light.

Tomorrow the Rose Parade will air, and people from around the country will begin making plans to move here. I can't blame them, but be advised that our housing costs are just this side of Tokyo's.

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The winning council post was Alpha Patriot's "Spinning the Numbers."

Outside of the council, LaShawn Barber won this week's prize with "Academic Freedom, Hate Mail, and David Horowitz".

The entire menu of excellent posts—including some lovely runners-up—is available here.

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People are celebrating in moderation, and sending some of the money saved to Tsunami relief. Good.

One thing: we know 2005 will be a better year. It has to be. It could not possibly be worse.

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HIPY PAPY NTHUDTHDTH THUTHDA NEEWE YRYR.

"I'm just saying 'Happy New Year,'" said Owl carelessly.
"It's a nice long one," said Pooh, very much impressed by it.
"Well, actually, of course, I'm saying 'A Very Happy New Year with love from Pooh.' Naturally, it takes a good deal of pencil to say a long thing like that."

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James Joyner at OTB has a nice little roundup of reactions to the U.S.-Indian-Japanese-Australian coalition to spearhead relief efforts in wave-torn Asia. Apparently, we are being very naughty in bypassing the U.N.

Fuck that noise.

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For the latest.

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Laurence is still accepting rosters of potentially deceased famous people at The Dead Pool. I hate Mr. Death as much as the next girl, but he always prevails in the long run, so I might as well gamble on him and win prizes. (Believe me: there are a few people on my list I despised putting there, and I'll mourn them if they die this coming year. But I felt they had risk factors, and on they went.)

I need four more of you to send your lists in to Lair before 9:00 p.m. (PST) on New Year's Eve, so I can win the referral contest as well.

Thanks!

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1 I'm still upset with you for saying women don't soap their breasts in the shower like in horror movies ;p

Posted by: jeff at December 29, 2004 07:01 PM (f/b8o)

2 Like is full of these shocks. Soon, we're going to have a discussion about the Easter Bunny, but you'll want to have a drink first

Posted by: Attila Girl at December 30, 2004 12:01 AM (SuJa4)

3 I'm going to have one hell of a time coming up with ways of breaking nine-way ties, aren't I? Heh. I live for chaos.

Posted by: Laurence Simon at December 30, 2004 08:48 AM (uBCxH)

4 You live to be a bad influence: you just got me to make a wager based on who will die this coming year. Amazing.

Posted by: Attila Girl at December 30, 2004 01:34 PM (SuJa4)

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Via OTB. His most famous role, of course, was detective Lenny Briscoe on Law and Order (12 seasons).

I loved him, and I can't believe this happened. He was relatively young, too. Fucking cancer, snatching people away before their time.

He was a great pool player, and I do hope there are pool tables in heaven.

Goodbye, Mr. Orbach.

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Jeff at Beautiful Atrocities has a roundup of the military men and women providing coverage of Iraq and Afghanistan.

Go read.

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Costas Synolakis writes in the Opinion Journal on warning systems for Tsunamis, and on educating people to run to high ground when they feel tremors and are near the water.

The images from Sri Lanka, India and Thailand that have filled our screens--and the descriptions from survivors--are sadly all too familiar, at least to those of us who have conducted tsunami field surveys. At times, some of us thought that we were revisiting images from Flores in 1992, or East Java in 1994, Irian Jaya in 1996, Papua New Guinea in 1998 and Vanuatu in 1999--to just mention catastrophes in countries with similar landscape and coastal construction.

The response of local residents and tourists, however, was unfamiliar, at least to tsunami field scientists for post-1990s tsunamis. In one report, swimmers felt the current associated with the leading depression wave approaching the beach, yet hesitated about getting out of the water because of the "noise" and the fear that there was an earthquake and they would be safer away from buildings. They had to be told by tourists from Japan--a land where an understanding of tsunamis is now almost hard-wired in the genes--to run to high ground. In another report, vacationers spending the day on Phi Phi were taken back to Phuket one hour after the event started. In many cases tsunami waves persist for several hours, and the transport was nothing less than grossly irresponsible.

Contrast these reactions with what happened in Vanuatu, in 1999. On Pentecost Island, a rather pristine enclave with no electricity or running water, the locals watch television once a week, when a pickup truck with a satellite dish, a VCR and a TV stops by each village. When the International Tsunami Survey Team visited days after the tsunami, they heard that the residents had watched a Unesco video prepared the year before, in the aftermath of the 1998 Papua New Guinea tsunami disaster. When they felt the ground shake during the 1999 earthquake, they ran to a hill nearby. The tsunami swept through, razing the village to the ground. Out of 500 people, only three died, and all three had been unable to run like the others. The tsunami had hit at night.

Which says volumes about the value of education.

The angry questions that hundreds of thousands of family members of victims are asking, especially in Sri Lanka and India, are "what happened?"--and "why did no one warn us before the tsunami hit?" The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center had issued a tsunami bulletin and had concluded that there was no danger for the Pacific nations in its jurisdiction. Why didn't it extend its warning to South and Southeast Asia? It is perhaps clear with hindsight that an Indian Ocean tsunami warning center should have been in place, or that the Indian Ocean nations should have requested coverage from the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center.

Yes.

Clearly, the hazard had been grossly underestimated. To give governments the benefit of the doubt, the last transoceanic tsunami that had hit the region was in 1882, and this was caused by Krakatoa's eruption. Other large earthquakes along the Sumatra trench had not caused major tsunamis, or if they had, they had not been reported as devastating. Floods occur nearly every year, as do storms. Natural hazards that are less frequent tend to be ignored. No nation can be ready for every eventuality--as 9/11 painfully demonstrated--at least before a major disaster that identifies the risk. Without the governments of Indian Ocean nations having identified the risk, they probably did not feel they needed the services of the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, however free. Even simple and inexpensive mitigation strategies such as public education possibly did not even occur as a possibility. The rapid tourist development of Sri Lanka may also have contributed to the government's inaction toward suggesting that some of the region's most beautiful shorelines may have hidden dangers.

But the occurrence of this massive and destructive tsunami does prove that megatsunamis can occur in the Indian Ocean. The Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission should continue its efforts to develop a long-term approach to tsunami hazard mitigation through a coordinated program involving assessment, warning guidance, and mitigation aimed at at-risk communities. Improved numerical wave propagation models, new scientific studies to document paleotsunamis, and the deployment of tsunameters will help better monitor tsunami occurrences and develop inundation maps that will guide evacuation plans. As is done among Pacific nations, Indian ocean scientists, disaster managers, policy makers, and local communities need to work together toward the common goal of creating tsunami-resistant communities with access to accurate, timely tsunami warnings. A tsunami warning center needs to be established as soon as practical in the region, and the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center should act as an interim warning center.

Many developing countries do not have the resources and will need substantial assistance. Even among nations in the Pacific rim, only three have comprehensive inundation maps, and none, including the U.S., have probabilistic tsunami flooding maps that reflect the realities of the past 30 years. Unesco's Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission and the U.S. should help the effort in implementing the U.N.'s global tsunami hazard mitigation plan before the next Asian tsunami disaster strikes.

Please. If we do it right, this disaster can be the "Titanic" tragedy of the 21st Century, encouraging us to at least use our hindsight to accomplish what we wish we'd done from the get-go.

H/T: Dean's World.

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The official Command Post list of charites for Earthquake/Tsunami Relief in the affected countries is being updated constantly. Choose your brand, and move on it.

Hurry, because 1) it's almost the first of the year, and if you get on this now you can deduct it on this year's taxes; and 2) the faster we get the money rolling in, the more we can reduce the "secondary effects" such as the spread of disease from mosquitos, rats, unclean water and so forth.

And pray. Even if you're an agnostic, you might give it a shot—and I'll bet there's extra credit in it.

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DiscoShaman gives us some of the victory celebration in Ukraine, and one last shot of the tent city before it closes up, presumably, for good.

It's a sweet night for democracy.

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1 Thanks for the moral support, btw And you've made a big new fan with Jinnderella!

Posted by: jeff at December 28, 2004 03:49 PM (e5qz7)

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. . . is really cracking up. Tim Blair has the evidence.

H/T: Pejman.

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If you're a praying person, now would be a good time. I don't know whom to weep for harder: the dead, the survivors, or the millions of newly homeless people.

And I'm angry. Angry because we—the nations of the world—are killing each other when we need to be developing early-warning systems for every country that has people living along the coast of any sea or ocean. We need to be encouraging minimal building codes for developing countries: even in Mexico, people still run out of their homes when earthquakes hit. Out! Not in. That's how well-built the structures are. We can do better.

There was a two and a half hour gap between when the quake hit and when the tsunami reached the beaches, where people were sunbathing, fishing and swimming, unaware.

Sure, this tragedy doesn't compare with what Hitler and Stalin were able to "accomplish." But my heart aches, and it was so unnecessary. All we need is for Asians to get the same warnings Alaskans get before they are hit with massive tidal waves. That's not too much to ask.

Please. War on Terror: Win it now, and let's move on to making the world a safer place. If Mother Nature still turns on us this way, we ought to be able to band together and fight her instead of other people.

I know, I know: I'm a bleeding-heart conservative to my very core. But think about it. Please.

This article contains information on the reactions of L.A.-based Indian and Sri Lanken groups to the disaster, and a listing of the international aid agencies that will be sending help. If you have a few dollars to spare, please write a check to one of these organizations. And when you are finished shaking your fist at God, please ask Him to protect, feed, clothe and house those who now have nothing.

I don't know what it all means, except that there was nothing most of us could really do after 9/11. The most generous country in the world, hit on its mainland by mass murderers, sent canned corn and homemade quilts to New York City because we wanted to do something, dammit. There was nothing we could do, because the dead don't eat canned corn and don't use quilts.

Now there is something we can do, and the disaster is on a magnitude that dwarfs 9/11. Send canned goods, warm blankets, and—most importantly—hard cash.

Thanks.

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1 Well said, is there a donation site set up for it yet? (that you know of) It would wonderful if the world took after California, Japan, & even Mexico City (to some degree) for building code (even in places that aren't in constant earthquake threat) and Japan and the West Coast for tsunami warning systems. The only thing I would disagree with is the comment: "even in Mexico, people still run out of their homes when earthquakes hit. Out! Not in. That's how well-built the structures are. We can do better." In a large earthquake, its wise to get out of the building after the shaking stops because even in California the buildings are designed to survive the quake and long enough afterwards so you can get out of it. We still can't build the perfect building, but we can build a darn good one that gives you a fighting chance to get out alive. Now building that can't survive a moderate shake and still be in the realm of useable is uncalled for and should be fixed. But as far as bigger earthquakes, my butt is running out of the building for some open space.

Posted by: the Pirate at December 27, 2004 09:33 AM (FvqEB)

2 What did you do in '94? I was referring above to people leaving a building while the shaking is still going on, which isn't wise, at least where buildings are decently constructed. Afterward, the thing to do is check for gas leaks, and turn the gas off if necessary. Then you can assess the damage and figure out if the structure is still safe.

Posted by: Attila Girl at December 27, 2004 01:51 PM (SuJa4)

3 In '94 I slept through the earthquake other than that I was in the 8th grade. But since then seismic design was one of my major requirements (we got to break model builings and shattered rienforced concret beams, and did concree compression tests quite fun really..well except when I founf out 4 & 5 ksi concrete can explode under pressure) and I get to see it again on the PE exam for CA. Running in and out of buildings durring the earthquake isn't wise period and is more a result of people not knowing what to do durring the earthquake. Living with a non-california person during a minor trembler in college was a reminder of how what to do is almost second nature. I wouldn't be running out of the high-rise durring shaking, get hit by some granite facing, that would hurt a lot. I agree that in many parts of the world that decent and construction aren't really used in the same sentence, its a huge problem. We are lucky in California, even though some people take all we know for granted think it means buildings are indistructable.

Posted by: the Pirate at December 27, 2004 02:14 PM (FvqEB)

4 To be clear tho I'm not a proeffsional seismic guy, I'm more on the environmental side hydraulics, water/wastewater, solid waste, pollution, haz waste, biosolids and the such. But I'm still required to atleast know the fundamental concepts of the other aspects civil engineering (structures & siesmic) since we do design structures from time to time.

Posted by: the Pirate at December 27, 2004 02:17 PM (FvqEB)

5 Gosh, I knew you were young, but . . . I know I'd rather be here during an earthquake than anywhere else: our structures are designed to take it (within limits, of course), and we mostly know what to do. Any thoughts I might have had about indestructability of structures was cast in doubt during the Northridge quake, and finished off by 9/11. Did you see L.A. Story? Nice earthquake scene, there.

Posted by: Attila Girl at December 28, 2004 03:54 PM (SuJa4)

6 Another civil engineer? cool! I don't do structures though. I'll probably start and end my career in the same place, deep in the bowels of this public water utility I work for.

Posted by: Desert Cat at December 28, 2004 11:04 PM (c8BHE)

7 2 hours is plenty of time to evacuate people unfortuneatly geophysisits ( bad spelling) probalby arent listened to and governments are to scared to carry out mass evacuations because of panic but yet could have saved so many lives if they just swallowed thier pride and looked at helping people not worring about thier economy.

Posted by: charmaine powell at December 29, 2004 05:30 AM (ZF8yE)

8 Yup still a young buck. LA Story, might of seen it on TBS when I was in Kindergarden. DC- Where I work we do mostly the Environmental side of it. I couldn't bring myself to work for a Public/Government Agency, just felt like it would be feeding the beast. That and ever person I couldn't stand in school went to work for public angencies so it was stress avoidance too.

Posted by: the Pirate at December 29, 2004 06:52 AM (FvqEB)

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Some great stuff this week. First, The Diplomad gives us "Ratman of the Far Abroad," a thought-provoking metaphor on the U.S. position in the world. Then, Sean Gleeson has a strong runner-up in "Ten More Reasons to Hate Rumsfeld," a witty commentary on Pengate.

The council winner was Dr. Sanity, who takes on criticisms of the pharmaceutical industry in “Witchhunt.”

Be sure to drop in and check out all the top entries, since it was a strong group this time.

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Life in the foothills near Pasadena, California. When the wind is blowing—or right after a rain—the mountains appear to be etched against the sky with a precision that almost makes them look unreal, they're so beautiful. During the transition seasons from hot to cool, the skies are blue with fluffy white clouds that give a picture-postcard effect, despite the scrubby, desert-like ecosystem in the hills.

Sure is pretty out here.

At the moment my husband is just starting the cold that I got over a week ago. So he can't smell any longer the odor that's seeping up from the basement, or perhaps elsewhere under the house. But we know something is dead down there. At first we thought it might be a mouse, but a mouse would be dessicated by now, its parts carried off by the ants. This guy is a rat.

In between fevers, Attila the Hub managed to find out where the creatures were getting in, and seal it off. But the smell is still there.

I didn't mess around with potpourri: I got concentrated perfume blocks of a piney, Christmas-like scent that's actually quite nice. As I walk around the house I notice the different "scent zones" created by my strategic placement of the little perfume blocks. And the 2-3 places where they don't cover, and something is Present that makes one think either of a severe case of mildew, or a mild case of death.

I'll keep moving the little scent blocks around, and maybe burn a few candles. And I'll hope that our guests on Christmas day also have mild colds.

Yup. Sure is nice, living in these here hills. Seclusion, privacy, dark moonlit nights, a view of the little valley below us . . . and carrion wafting through the heating vents. Very glamorous indeed.

Merry Christmas, everyone. Here's hoping your rats die outside, where the coyotes can get them.

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Blackfive shows us why what we do matters when we give toys and shoes to the kids in Iraq. Read this, if you read nothing else I ever link.

And send a few bucks to the programs that are helping Iraqis (Blackfive has a nice roundup).

Via Kate.

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. . . takes a break from raising my blood pressure to make a good point. He's talking to a friend—I think I know who, but it probably doesn't matter:

We're both deeply into Religion and Spirituality but from different directions. In our last talk we both griped about how we're sick of the faux Holiday Spirit and the wretched music. He talked about how the true meaning of Christmas gets overlooked. No, not about the birth of Jesus which has tremendous controversy, least of which is "When..." and most of which has to do with an illegitimate birth. In any case, he mentioned the true meaning of Christmas has to do with light, that this time of year Christmas represents a temporary light from the long Winter's darkness.

Which is all well and good, I said, and fits in well with Hanukkah AKA The Festival of Lights. Hanukkah is about the miracle of oil lasting for eight days instead of one day, giving those extra days of light and thus extra comfort from the darkness.

And we both nodded our heads after seeing the light.

As human beings we don't care for the dark. It hides the boogeyman and other creatures. It allows our imagination to run a bit wild over every unexpected noise. Simply, darkness hides those that could, and long ago did, prey on us. With that, winter can be difficult as the nights are very long. We want something to break the boredom and shadows. We want something to remind us that spring will happen very soon. We want light. We want a festival. And so before Hanukkah we had something, a wintertime celebration. And we have Hanukkah, and Christmas, and more celebrations.

And so I say "Happy Holidays!" to all people, religious or otherwise, in the spirit of humanity.

Beyond these concerns, light (just in its physical manifestation, leaving metaphor aside) re-sets our daily clocks, allowing us to sleep better. Short, dim days wreak havoc on those who have sleep disorders. And the lack of full-spectrum light causes depression for many (Seasonal Affective Disorder, and all that).

Not to mention that our forbears had to negotiate some dark, dark streets at night, and—once snug in their beds—sometimes had to go outside into the dark if they wanted to pee in the middle of the night.

Reading at night was difficult to do, and expensive.

We have all kinds of reason to crave light.

Let the Sunshine in.

LMM is actually advertising here, so you'll probably go have to check his blog out. I assure you that it has redeeming social importance.

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1 Very illuminating. But my Mother-in-Law has an even more intrinsic view of Christmas: It's the time of year when and if you can get your lights strung on the house first, you and only you are the Keeper of Christmas and no one can take that away. It's that special time to spread guilt and resentment by throwing a big party in the neighborhood, serving shots and after-dinner drinks until the husbands stumble home well after their wives have already given up on them. It adds stress to others' Christmas while giving the party-thrower that warm feeling of superiority. A time to submit an itemized list of gifts, keeping in mind that these are not suggestions but well researched wants and needs, and any creativity will be met with severe ridicule upon the unwrapping of said creative gift. Or "instacule" as I like to call it. And finally, it's a time of giving. Giving just one more gift to instill in future generations the importance of buying more presents than anyone else. All wrapped in a bow that looks like an angel's fart and sings, "I care more than you." This was fun and healthy, I think. Thanks.

Posted by: Big Al at December 23, 2004 03:20 AM (FTNCi)

2 Ah, the spirit of the season. You, my friend, truly care.

Posted by: Attila Girl at December 23, 2004 01:13 PM (SuJa4)

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Republican? Democrat?

Whaddya think?

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1 Likud.

Posted by: Laurence Simon at December 22, 2004 04:47 AM (Xi1Pv)

2 Hey, Santa celebrates CHRISTmas. These days, the Democrats reserve such religious fervor for abortion on demand and "anti-war" rallies. Celebrates Christ's birth? MUST be a Republican!

Posted by: Ranten.N.Raven at December 22, 2004 05:13 AM (CgkPo)

3 Let's see... -Red Clothes -Slave Labor -Caste System -Gluttonous elitist behavior -below-par reindeer-driven technology I'd put him in the Politburo Wing of the Socialist Party

Posted by: Jeremy at December 22, 2004 07:18 AM (NgoAe)

4 Vast spy network (He knows if you've been bad or good). Heavy emphasis on moralistic themes (so be good for goodness sake!). Heavy use of propaganda and coercion (you better watch out, Santa Claus is coming). Owns all the means of production at the North Pole. Parcels out gifts to curry favor with the populace. Encourages a "cult" following through the use of patriotic songs. His images are plastered across public places. Punishes his political enemies (coal in the stockings of the "bad" girls and boys) Definitely some kind of authoritarian dictator.

Posted by: Desert Cat at December 23, 2004 07:05 AM (c8BHE)

5 You know, I'd actually like to see a Likud Santa: I think he might be a little more pro-active than the one we have. There are a lot of people out there who deserve a lot more coal in their stockings. Scott Peterson would be looking at one helluva chunk of coal this Christmas. Oh, yes. * * * Desert Cat has a point, though, too: how is it that this guy knows who's naughty and who's nice? Very suspicious.

Posted by: Attila Girl at December 23, 2004 01:21 PM (SuJa4)

6 Heh heh heh... "No more coal from me THIS year! Oh no, this year ol' Santa is packing Tomahawk cruise missiles on his sleigh. Ho ho ho, It won't be ME dropping down the chimney this year for the 'naughty' list."

Posted by: Desert Cat at December 24, 2004 09:07 AM (c8BHE)

7 He's RED. I mean, c'mon.

Posted by: k at December 25, 2004 07:32 AM (ywZa8)

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I'm still formulating my Ultimate Theory on Jack the Ripper. But in the meantime, I thought I'd suggest some suspects who are every bit as plausible as a couple of these people.

I'm going to start with Eva Gabor, who is a creative person and should therefore be acquainted with the dark side of human nature. Granted, she lived in a different time than ol' Leather Apron did, but I feel certain that just by hopping into her time machine she could have fixed that.

And isn't it convenient that she died before I got interested in the Ripper case, thereby depriving me of the opportunity to interview her as a Ripper candidate? That's too much coincidence, even for me.

I'm afraid Ripperologists all over the world will have to admit that I've shaken things right down to their foundations, here. Just look at it:

1) Eva Gabor probably knew where her uterus was, and I'm sure she could have found such a thing on another woman;

2) She doesn't look strong, but she's wiry. That can be deceptive.

3) If she can't make it into the time/space rocket ship to kill any particular whore, all she needs to do is have one of her sisters stand in for her and take care of it that night.

4) She was able to get these women alone by discussing shopping with them. And:

5) When she walked away from the crime scenes she did it in 20th century clothes, so witnesses wouldn't be willing to admit having glimpsed anyone in such an outlandish getup.

So there you go. When do I get my hundreds of thousands of dollars? A check's okay, if it isn't from out-of-state.

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