October 26, 2004

Election Projection

. . . has Bush at 296, and Kerry at 242 EVs. Plus: Cal-ee-fornia has just moved from "Solid Kerry" to "Close Kerry." Mary Beth Cahill is in bed with a headache.

Real Clear Politics has it much closer, of course: Bush 234, Kerry 228, with a handful of undecideds—but those include both Florida and Ohio. Obviously, Bush needs both those states to win (well, he might not need Ohio, if he gets Minnesota and/or Wisconsin—but no one wants something close enough that the Dems can contest it in the courts).

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