August 09, 2008

Energy Futurist Fight Club!

It's Zubrin vs. Pickens, at PJ Media!

America owes a debt of gratitude to T. Boone Pickens for stepping forward to sound the alarm over this national emergency. This is all the more true, since as an oilman, Pickens could simply have followed the model of others in the business and just sat tight, enjoying record profits while the country goes under. Instead, he chose to act as a patriot.

So hats off to Mr. Pickens. That said, the plan he is advancing for dealing with the crisis — build windmills to release natural gas from electricity generation so it can be used to power compressed natural gas (CNG)-driven cars, displacing gasoline in the process — is technically flawed and needs to be revised.

Continues stud/god Zubrin:

The total known reserves of natural gas in all of North America are 274 trillion cubic feet. And while new reserves are always being discovered, launching a heroic effort to shift our transportation system to critical dependence upon a fuel whose known domestic reserves amount to little more than ten yearsÂ’ supply is simply not prudent.

Finally, compressed natural gas is an inferior technology for vehicle fuel. This is so because it is a gas, not a liquid, and so must be stored in heavy high-pressure tanks. A standard steel K-bottle compressed gas cylinder, which weighs about 133 lbs, can only store enough natural gas to match the energy content of two gallons of gasoline. So CNG cars are either limited to short range, or must carry massive tank systems that increase their cost and reduce their mileage. Lighter graphite composite tanks are possible, but these are very expensive and unsafe in the event of a crash, as they are susceptible to breakage followed by gas release and explosion.

So the Pickens plan, as written, won’t work. Fortunately, however, there is a way to modify it so that it can. The key is for Congress to pass a bill, such as the current Open Fuel Standards Act (S.3303, HR.6559) requiring that all new cars sold in the U.S. be fully flex-fueled — that is, capable of running equally well on gasoline, ethanol, and methanol. Such technology is currently available and only adds about $100 to the cost of a car (in contrast to CNG capability, which adds about $2,000). The reason why establishing a full flex-fuel standard is the answer is that methanol — a very safe and practical liquid vehicle fuel — can be made from a vast array of feedstocks, including not only natural gas, but also coal, recycled urban trash, and any kind of biomass without exception.

So if a bold wind or nuclear energy initiative can in fact free up enough natural gas to make a difference to the vehicle fuel market, flex-fuel cars can readily make use of it in a much safer and more practical form as methanol. But if not, then we — and the rest of the world (since an American flex-fuel requirement would effectively make flex-fuel the international standard, as all foreign car makers would need to switch their lines over to conform to it) — would also be able to make our fuel from a wide array of alternative resources. Indeed, we have enough known coal reserves for hundreds of years’ worth of supply, and enough crop residues available globally that, converted into methanol, could replace all the oil of OPEC. The key is not to pick one particular fuel resource, but to open the fuel market to all comers. Setting a flex-fuel vehicle standard is the quickest and most efficient way to achieve that goal.


Posted by: Attila Girl at 04:13 AM | Comments (4) | Add Comment
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1 OT but Jeff Goldstein is back and fully in charge of his front page again.

Posted by: Darleen at August 09, 2008 08:59 AM (Hto/+)

2 On topic, IMH and unexpert opinion, burning any fossel fuel for energy must be reserved for those activities that absolutely need it - ie trains, trucks, ships, jets - that need the energy to transport heavy loads. Everything else, from generating electricity to passenger cars, should come from nuclear (electric cars using nuclear generated electricity). We still need oil for plastics...burning it to get from home to work is silly.

Posted by: Darleen at August 09, 2008 09:05 AM (Hto/+)

3 The Zubrin book is something I'll definitely want to read. Ethanol/methanol - I look at those as renewable, so I'm definitely for flex-fuel cars. You can drive by some huge hills in So. Cal that are really landfills and you can see pipes all over recovering methane. I do think it is wrong to use food to make ethanol. Corn especially.

Posted by: Darleen at August 10, 2008 07:03 AM (Hto/+)

4 "The total known reserves of natural gas in all of North America are 274 trillion cubic feet...little more than ten yearsÂ’ supply... " Yeah, and if you go back twenty years you'll see it was the same. The number Mr. Zubrin should be using is 1,525 TCF:That represents a 60+year supply at current levels of consumption. That is the latest (2007) Potential Supply from the Potential Gas Committee at the Colorado School of Mines, and represents Proved Reserves plus Probable and Possible Resources, but excludes Speculative Resources. All the terms have a particular precisely-defined meaning. That is the number that represents technically recoverable resources at current economics. And lest someone get worried, I'm sure they are basing it on conservative price levels, not on the run-up in oil prices. BOTTOM LINE--So no need to go shopping for a new home heating system if you are a natural gas customer.

Posted by: Darrell at August 10, 2008 01:38 PM (mOufP)

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